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WHY IS MY FTP DROPPING?

By Anthony WalshRoadman CyclingUpdated 26 May 2026

WHO THIS IS FOR

IS THIS YOU?

The rider whose FTP test came back lower than expected

You trained hard and the number went backwards — you need to know whether it's a testing issue or a real training problem.

The rider whose interval sessions feel harder than they used to

Sessions that used to be manageable now feel impossible and the numbers are drifting down.

THE ROADMAN VIEW

An FTP that drops is alarming — but before you overhaul your training, step back and check the obvious things first. The most common explanation isn't overtraining or illness. It's a poorly prepped test: tested on a Friday after a big week, in the heat of summer, without a proper warm-up. The fix is two easy days and a retest. Most 'drops' disappear at that point.

If the number genuinely keeps declining despite a rested test, the culprits are almost always fuelling or recovery. Anthony has spoken to World Tour coaches who say the same thing repeatedly: amateurs fuel like they're doing zone 2 on days they're doing threshold, then wonder why the hard sessions aren't sticking. Fuelling the work properly is not optional — it's part of the training.

The one thing that catches people off guard is iron deficiency. It's particularly common in female cyclists and in masters athletes who train hard, and it presents as exactly this: performance that drifts down despite consistent training. A basic blood panel — ferritin, iron, haemoglobin — rules it in or out quickly. It's cheap, fast, and it's missed more often than you'd think.

EXPERT EVIDENCE

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

Professor Stephen SeilerExercise physiologist, University of Agder; polarised-training researcher
When trained athletes see performance declines, the first diagnostic question is always volume and intensity distribution. Excessive grey-zone riding — not too hard to hurt, but too hard to recover — is the most common cause of stagnation and declining power in well-meaning amateurs.
Hear it: 80/20 Training to Ride Faster | Dr Stephen Seiler
Dan LorangHead of Performance, Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe; coach to Jan Frodeno
Recovery weeks are not optional extras — they are the mechanism by which training adaptation becomes measurable fitness. Athletes who train through recovery periods accumulate fatigue debt that eventually shows up as declining power, even with no change in training load.
Hear it: Roglic's Coach Builds A Training Plan For Amateur Riders | Dan Lorang

PRACTICAL APPLICATION

DO THIS WEEK

Take an honest recovery week before retesting
Cut volume by 40–50% for one week: keep rides short and genuinely easy, no intensity. Retest at the end. If the number recovers, the issue was accumulated fatigue, not a structural problem.
Audit your fuelling for one week of hard sessions
Log what you eat before and during your two hardest sessions this week. If you are not consuming 60–80g of carbs per hour on threshold and VO2max efforts, that is likely blunting your training response.
Get a blood panel if drops persist
Ask your GP for ferritin, serum iron, haemoglobin, and a full blood count. Low ferritin — even within 'normal' clinical ranges — consistently tracks with reduced power in endurance athletes. The fix (iron supplementation or dietary adjustment) typically shows results within 4–8 weeks.

COMMON MISTAKES

WHAT CYCLISTS GET WRONG

MISTAKEPanicking and adding more training to reverse a drop.
FIXMore training on accumulated fatigue makes things worse, not better. The first intervention is always rest, then reassessment.
MISTAKEDismissing the problem as temporary and training through it.
FIXTwo consecutive test cycles of genuine decline warrant investigation. Don't normalise a downward trend.
MISTAKETesting under different conditions each time and attributing the gap to fitness.
FIXControl the test environment: same location, same warm-up, same time of day, same fuelling. Different conditions produce different numbers that are not comparable.

FAQ

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Is it normal for FTP to drop in summer?

Yes. Heat suppresses peak power output — the same effort in 30°C produces lower watts than in 15°C. Summer FTP tests often read 3–6% lower even when fitness is genuinely equal. This is a thermoregulation effect, not a training failure.

Can illness cause a long-term FTP drop?

Yes, especially respiratory illness. Return to full training too fast after illness and FTP can stay depressed for weeks. The fix is a genuine easy return block before any intensity — frustrating but necessary.

Does overtraining syndrome cause FTP to drop?

Yes, but true overtraining syndrome is rare. Functional overreaching — temporary performance suppression from too much load — is far more common and resolves with 1–2 weeks of reduced training. If rest does not improve things within 2 weeks, consult a sports medicine doctor.

Can weight gain explain an FTP drop in watts?

Not directly — FTP in watts doesn't automatically drop with weight gain. But your W/kg declines, which affects climbing and relative performance. If your event goals are climb-dependent, weight gain hurts even if raw FTP holds.

How long does it take to recover a dropped FTP?

If the drop was from accumulated fatigue, a proper recovery week followed by structured training typically restores it within 2–4 weeks. If illness or iron deficiency is involved, expect 4–8 weeks for full recovery.

RELATED EPISODES

HEAR THE CONVERSATIONS

80/20 Training to Ride Faster | Dr Stephen Seiler

Roglic's Coach Builds A Training Plan For Amateur Riders | Dan Lorang

5 Fixable Reasons Your Losing Power As You Age