Anthony found Mike Woods at 60-1 for the 2020 Vuelta and couldn't understand why the bookies had him that long. This episode breaks down the 18-stage Vuelta route, the stages that will decide the GC, and where Anthony sees the value bets.
Key Takeaways
The 2020 Vuelta is 18 stages instead of 21, and almost every one of them has a summit finish or a brutal climb in the final kilometres. Stage 12 up the Angrilou pitches to 23 percent, Stage 2 has 10km at 7.8 percent with only 17km to the finish, and the Stage 13 TT finishes with 2km at 15 percent. Anthony's local climb in Dublin maxes out around 8 percent, so when he says 23 percent is serious terrain, he means it.
The value bet Anthony lands on is Mike Woods at 60-1 each way. Woods is one of the best standing climbers in the world, and on a race with gradients pitching to 23 percent, standing climbers are what matter. At those gradients you're not getting up seated. Anthony's GC call is Carapaz to win, Dumoulin second, Roglic to crack under Tour de week fatigue.
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If you want to follow how the race actually unfolded, the Vuelta Stage 6 episode covers the Tourmalet finish and what Movistar were planning. The Stage 7 episode picks up the Valverde thread from there.