CoachingAnswer

HOW DO I PACE A RACE USING POWER?

By Anthony WalshRoadman CyclingUpdated 26 May 2026

WHO THIS IS FOR

IS THIS YOU?

The club racer with a power meter who still rides on feel

You have the data but you race by sensation and keep ending up empty when the decisive move goes.

The gran fondo rider who wants to race the result, not just finish

You want to use power to budget your effort across hours rather than reacting to whoever is around you.

THE ROADMAN VIEW

Here's the thing nobody tells you about racing with power: the meter isn't there to make you go harder. It's there to stop you wasting energy you'll need later. Most amateurs treat the number as a target to chase. The riders who actually win treat it as a ceiling that keeps them out of trouble. Anthony has made this point repeatedly on the podcast — the data is only useful if it changes a decision, and the decision it should change most often is when to back off.

When Alex Welburn came on the show to talk about the metrics Pogačar's level of rider actually uses, the takeaway wasn't some exotic number. It was that the best riders understand their own critical power and W' — how much work they can do above threshold before the tank runs dry — and they manage it deliberately. Every surge out of a corner, every gap you close, every time you sit on the front for an extra minute is a withdrawal from an account that doesn't refill mid-race.

The good news is this is genuinely fixable in a single race. Set your zones, write two numbers on your stem — your bunch ceiling and your climb ceiling — and ride to them. The first time you do it, you'll feel like you're holding back. Then the decisive move goes on the final climb and you've got the matches to follow it. That's the whole game.

EXPERT EVIDENCE

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

Alex WelburnCycling coach and physiologist; PhD researcher on critical power and W'
Racing well off power is less about hitting big numbers and more about managing the work you do above threshold. Every rider has a finite anaerobic capacity — W' — and the riders who finish strongest are the ones who don't spend it on efforts that don't change the race.
Hear it: Why Your CTL Is Wrong | Roadman Cycling Podcast
Alex DowsettProfessional cyclist; former UCI Hour Record holder
Pacing discipline is suppressing the urge to chase a number or a wheel when the legs feel good early. The riders who pace by a deliberate ceiling rather than by sensation are the ones who are still in contention when the race is decided in the final third.
Hear it: 13 Years of Pro Riding: What Amateurs Don't Know | Dowsett

PRACTICAL APPLICATION

DO THIS WEEK

Write two numbers on your stem before the start
Your flat-bunch ceiling (roughly 78% of FTP) and your sustained-climb ceiling (88–94% of FTP). These are the limits you ride to when nothing decisive is happening. They keep you in the race without bleeding energy you'll need when it matters.
Audit your matches after every race
Open the file and count every effort above 120% FTP. For each one, ask: did it buy me a result, or did I just react? Most amateurs find half their hard efforts were unnecessary. Cutting those is free fitness on the day.
Use power for the surges, perceived effort for the steady state
On accelerations and corner exits, glance at power to cap the spike — heart rate is too slow to help. On long steady efforts, you can cross-check with RPE and breathing. Power leads; the body confirms.

COMMON MISTAKES

WHAT CYCLISTS GET WRONG

MISTAKETreating your FTP number as a target to hit rather than a ceiling to respect.
FIXIn a bunch, lower power is better — it means you're using the draft and your position. Chase the result, not the number.
MISTAKEPacing surges and climbs by heart rate.
FIXHeart rate lags 60–90 seconds behind effort. By the time it tells you you've gone too hard, the match is already burned. Use power for anything short and sharp.
MISTAKESpending efforts above threshold on moves that change nothing.
FIXBefore you close a gap or follow a surge, ask whether it affects your result. Your W' is finite — save it for the efforts that decide the race.

FAQ

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Do I need a power meter to race well?

No — riders won races for a century without one. But power removes the single biggest amateur error, which is misjudging effort early. If you race regularly, a power meter is one of the highest-return purchases you can make for pacing decisions.

What percentage of FTP should I sit at in the bunch?

On flat roads in a sheltered position, 65–78% of FTP is normal. If you're seeing higher than that just to hold your place, you're badly positioned and burning energy — move up or find better shelter.

How do I pace a power effort on a punchy climb?

Short steep climbs of 1–3 minutes can be ridden above threshold — 105–120% FTP — because they're over quickly. Longer sustained climbs should be capped at 88–94% unless you're committing to a decisive selection.

What is W' and why does it matter for racing?

W' (pronounced 'W-prime') is your finite store of work available above critical power — roughly your anaerobic capacity. Every surge depletes it and it only refills when you ride below threshold. Managing W' is the core of racing well on power.

Should I look at normalised power or average power in a race?

Normalised power. In a race full of surges, average power hides how spiky your ride was. Normalised power weights the hard efforts and gives a truer picture of the physiological cost — and of how many matches you spent.

Can I pace a criterium with power?

Partly. A crit is too reactive to ride to a steady number, but power is invaluable afterwards — reviewing your file shows whether your accelerations out of corners were efficient or whether your position forced you to spend matches you didn't need to.

RELATED EPISODES

HEAR THE CONVERSATIONS

Why Your CTL Is Wrong | Roadman Cycling Podcast

13 Years of Pro Riding: What Amateurs Don't Know | Dowsett

Criterium Secrets: Get Ahead of 99% of Your Competition | Cory Williams