There is a version of every gran fondo you have done where you finish 15 to 25 minutes faster with the same fitness. Not by training more. Not by losing weight. By spending the watts you already have in the right order.
I know this because I have watched it happen hundreds of times — on podcast episodes, in coaching conversations, in my own legs. A rider with an FTP of 240 watts finishes a five-hour gran fondo slower than a rider with an FTP of 210 because the first rider went out at 85 per cent of threshold and the second rider stayed at 72 per cent until the final quarter. Same course, same conditions, different arithmetic.
This is not a beginner's guide. If you want advice on what to expect at your first event, that is covered elsewhere. This is for the rider who has done the distance before and wants to stop leaving time on the road. The rider who finishes gran fondos but knows — quietly, annoyingly — that they could have gone faster if they had ridden smarter.
Here's the thing nobody tells you about gran fondo performance: the difference between finishing and performing is not a fitness gap. It is an execution gap. And execution is trainable.
The Difference Between Finishing and Performing
Finishing a gran fondo means you covered the distance. Performing means you covered it at or near your physiological ceiling for that duration — and you know the difference because the last 30 kilometres did not feel like a death march.
The finishing rider goes out with the group, rides on feeling, eats when hungry, drinks when thirsty, and crawls across the line having produced a wildly uneven power file with a Variability Index above 1.10. The performing rider has a plan for every section of the course, power targets for flats and climbs, a fuelling schedule that started before the event, and a VI closer to 1.03 to 1.05.
Look at the power files. The finishing rider's average power might actually be higher than the performing rider's through the first two hours. But the performing rider's normalised power holds steadier, the IF stays within range, and the final 90 minutes does not collapse. The total elapsed time is lower despite less visible effort.
This is what Dr Andy Coggan's work on normalised power was designed to expose. NP accounts for the metabolic cost of variability. A rider who surges and recovers repeatedly pays a higher physiological price than a rider who holds a steady effort at the same average. Those surges feel free in the first hour. The bill comes in the fourth.
Setting Your Power Targets
Let me break this down into numbers you can tape to your stem.
For a gran fondo lasting 4 to 6 hours, your intensity factor should sit between 0.70 and 0.75. If your FTP is 250 watts, that means a normalised power of 175 to 188 watts for the entire event. Not for the first half. For all of it.
That sounds low. I know. Every rider I have ever coached has said the same thing the first time they see those numbers. And every rider who has actually executed them has finished faster than their previous attempt at the same event.
Here is why. An IF of 0.75 over five hours costs roughly 300 TSS. An IF of 0.82 — which is what most riders default to when they go on feel — would cost 336 TSS over the same duration if they could sustain it. They cannot. So what actually happens is they ride at 0.82 for two hours, blow up, and finish the remaining three hours at 0.60 to 0.65. The total is slower and the experience is miserable.
The target power numbers by section:
- Flat and rolling sections: 70 to 75 per cent of FTP. This is your bread and butter. Smooth, aero, efficient.
- Climbs under 30 minutes: 80 to 85 per cent of your best 20-minute power. Not your flat FTP — your climbing-specific threshold, which for most riders sits 5 to 10 watts lower.
- Climbs over 30 minutes: 75 to 80 per cent of your best 20-minute power. Back off further because the duration compounds the glycogen cost.
- Descents: Soft pedal or coast. Do not chase watts on descents. Recover.
Use the Race Predictor before the event to model your target NP against the course profile. Knowing the number is half the discipline.
Negative Splitting: Going Slower to Go Faster
The concept is simple. The execution requires more self-control than most riders have in the first hour of an event.
Ride the first half of the gran fondo 5 to 10 watts below your target normalised power. In the second half, bring it up to target or 2 to 3 per cent above. The result is a faster overall time than if you had ridden evenly — and a dramatically faster time than if you had gone out hard.
Here's where it gets really interesting. The metabolic cost of intensity is not linear. Ten watts above threshold for five minutes does not cost the same as ten watts below threshold for five minutes. The above-threshold effort burns glycogen at nearly double the rate, produces lactate that impairs fat oxidation for the next 20 to 30 minutes, and generates heat that accelerates dehydration. The savings from going easy are real, but the cost of going hard is disproportionately greater.
In practical terms for a five-hour event at a target NP of 185 watts:
- Hours one and two: Ride at 175 to 180 watts NP. Heart rate ceiling 5 to 8 beats below your threshold heart rate. RPE of 5 to 6 out of 10. You should feel like you are holding back. That is the point.
- Hour three: Settle at 185 watts NP. RPE 6 to 7. Find your rhythm.
- Hours four and five: If you have executed the first half correctly, you will have the capacity to ride at 185 to 195 watts. This is where you pass the riders who went out hard. Not because you found something extra — because you did not throw it away.
The riders around you in the first hour who are 15 watts above your pace? You will see most of them again. They will be going the other direction on the effort scale.
First-Half Discipline
Let me be really clear about this. The first 90 minutes of a gran fondo is where the event is won or lost, and you win it by doing less than you are capable of.
This is psychologically brutal. You are surrounded by riders who are going harder. Your legs are fresh. Your breathing is easy. The voice in your head says "this is too slow, I am wasting the good legs." That voice is wrong. That voice has never seen your power file from the fourth hour of a gran fondo.
There are three specific traps in the first half that I see riders fall into repeatedly.
The start line surge. The first 10 kilometres of every gran fondo are ridden too fast. The neutralised zone ends, the road opens up, and suddenly everyone is riding at threshold. If you have a power meter, look at the number, not the riders around you. If you do not have a power meter, drop two gears from what feels right. Yes, two.
The first climb. Climbs expose the gap between how you feel and what is sustainable. A 15-minute climb at 90 per cent of FTP in the first hour feels entirely manageable. The same climb at the same percentage in the fourth hour will break you — not because the climb changed but because the glycogen you burned getting up it the first time is gone.
The group pull. A fast group rolls past and your instinct says join them, save energy in the draft. That is sound logic only if the group is riding at your target power or below. A group riding 20 watts above your ceiling is not saving you energy. It is costing you the final two hours.
Climbing Pacing Within a Gran Fondo
Climbs inside a gran fondo are not the same as standalone hill climbs. Your legs are already loaded. Your glycogen is partially depleted. Your core temperature is elevated. A climb that you could ride at 95 per cent of FTP when fresh needs to be ridden at 80 per cent in the context of a five-hour event.
The mistake I see most often is riders treating every climb in a gran fondo as a separate effort. They attack the base, ride the first third too hard, blow up before the summit, and then limp over the top needing 10 minutes to recover on the descent. Multiply this across four or five climbs and you have lost 30 to 40 minutes to poor pacing on terrain that should have been manageable.
Here is the protocol. Start every climb 5 watts below your target climbing power. Let the riders around you go. In the first two minutes, find a cadence that you can hold for the full duration — usually 75 to 85 rpm, sometimes lower on steeper gradients. Build into target power by the one-third mark. Hold it through the middle. If you have anything left in the final third, let it come — but do not force it.
Seated climbing costs less energy than standing for efforts longer than three minutes. Reserve standing for gradient changes and the final 200 metres of long climbs when you need to maintain momentum over the top.
One more thing. Know which climbs matter before you start. A 5-minute drag at 4 per cent early in the event is not worth spending mental energy on. A 25-minute climb at 7 per cent at kilometre 110 is the one that will define your ride. Plan for the climbs that come when you are tired, not the ones that come when you are fresh.
Group Dynamics: When to Draft, When to Drop
Gran fondos are not races in the traditional sense, but group dynamics still shape your ride. Used well, groups save you 25 to 35 per cent of your energy expenditure on flat and rolling terrain through drafting. Used badly, they drag you above your power ceiling and leave you isolated when the effort was too high.
The pattern in every gran fondo is predictable. The first 30 per cent forms large, fast groups that feel sustainable but are riding 10 to 15 watts above most riders' targets. The middle 40 per cent fragments — those groups shatter as riders fade, and the road fills with scattered clusters of three to eight riders. The final 30 per cent rewards the riders who still have legs, because they can form small, efficient groups while everyone else is riding alone in survival mode.
The rules are simple.
Draft whenever the group pace matches your target. If a group is riding at or below your power ceiling on flats and rolling terrain, sit in. Save your legs. Rotate through if asked but do not pull above your target watts.
Drop groups that are above your ceiling. This is the hard one. A group riding 15 watts above your flat target feels fine for 20 minutes. It does not feel fine for 90 minutes. If matching the group puts you above your power ceiling, let them go. You will pass most of those riders in the final quarter.
On climbs, ride your own pace. Full stop. Groups fracture on climbs and re-form on descents. Do not try to hold a wheel that is 10 watts above your climbing target. A 20-minute climb at 10 watts above target costs you roughly 200 additional kilojoules — energy that will be absent when you need it in the final hour.
After the midpoint, build your own group. The strongest riders in the second half of a gran fondo are rarely the ones who were at the front of the first half. Find riders who are holding a similar pace and work together. Three riders sharing the wind at 180 watts cover the same ground as a solo rider at 230 watts.
Feed Station Execution
Feed stations are not rest stops. They are servicing points. The difference matters.
I have watched riders lose 8 to 12 minutes at a single feed station. They roll in, unclip, lean the bike against a barrier, walk to the food table, queue for water, sit down, eat a banana, chat with another rider, stand up slowly, clip back in, and wobble out of the station at 12 km/h wondering why their legs feel worse than when they arrived.
Here is what 90 seconds looks like.
Before you arrive: Know what you need. Two bottles of mix? One bottle of water and a gel? Decide 5 kilometres before the station, not when you are in the queue. Have your empty bottles loose in the cages, ready to hand over or drop.
In the station: Grab bottles. Grab food. Put bottles in cages. Put food in pockets. Leave. If the station has a bottle-swap system, use it. If you need to fill from a tap, fill one bottle while drinking from the other.
After you leave: Eat and drink within the first kilometre. Soft pedal for 500 metres if you need to unwrap food, then build back to target power. The physiological cost of stopping — heart rate drops, blood pools in the legs, muscles cool — takes 15 to 20 minutes to fully reverse. Sitting down at a feed station doubles that recovery time.
Do not eat food you have not tested in training. Do not experiment with new gels, bars, or drinks mid-event. Your gut has been trained on specific products at specific intensities. Respect that.
The riders who execute feed stations well gain 10 to 20 minutes over the riders who treat them as social occasions. Over three or four stations in a long gran fondo, that is the difference between your target time and a frustrating near-miss.
The Final 20 Per Cent Problem
Here's the thing nobody tells you about the last 30 to 40 kilometres of a gran fondo: the physiology has changed. You are not the same rider you were at kilometre 20. Your body is operating under a different set of constraints, and no amount of mental toughness can override them. What you can do is plan for them.
By the 80 per cent mark, three things have happened.
Glycogen is depleted or critically low. Even with perfect fuelling at 80 to 90 grams of carbohydrate per hour, you cannot fully replace what you burn. The tank is not empty, but it is low enough that your body is increasingly reliant on fat oxidation, which cannot support the same power outputs. This is why the rider who burned glycogen at a higher rate early — by riding above their ceiling — bonks in the final quarter while the conservative rider still has fuel.
Core temperature has risen. Four to five hours of sustained effort generates enormous metabolic heat. Even in moderate conditions — 18 to 22 degrees Celsius — core temperature drifts upward throughout the event. The cardiovascular system diverts blood to the skin for cooling, which means less blood is available to deliver oxygen to working muscles. The effect is subtle at hour two and significant at hour five. Your heart rate rises at the same power, or your power drops at the same heart rate.
Dehydration has reduced plasma volume. Even with diligent drinking, most riders lose 2 to 3 per cent of body mass through sweat over a five-hour event. That loss reduces plasma volume, which reduces stroke volume, which means the heart has to beat faster to deliver the same cardiac output. Combined with the elevated core temperature, this produces a progressive cardiovascular drift that makes the same watts feel 10 to 15 per cent harder.
These three factors are cumulative and they are inevitable. You cannot prevent them. You can only manage the rate at which they develop. The rider who stays below their power ceiling in the first half arrives at the 80 per cent mark with more glycogen, lower core temperature, and less dehydration than the rider who went out hard. Same distance covered. Different physiological state. Different final 20 per cent.
The practical approach to managing this section: accept that your target power for the final quarter should be 5 to 8 per cent lower than your target for the middle section. Do not fight the drift. If you have executed the first 80 per cent well, that lower power will still be faster than the riders around you who are fading by 20 to 30 per cent. The relative performance is what matters.
Caffeine — 2 to 3 mg per kilogram of body mass, taken 45 to 60 minutes before you expect to hit the final quarter — is the one legal ergogenic aid with consistent evidence for reducing perceived effort in this exact scenario. A strong coffee at the last feed station, or a caffeinated gel at kilometre 100 of a 130-kilometre event.
Pre-Ride Route Study and Wind Planning
The riders who perform best at gran fondos have ridden the event before they start. Not physically — mentally. They know the route profile, they know where the climbs fall, they know where the wind typically hits, and they have a power budget for every section.
This takes 30 minutes the night before. Here is what to look at.
The elevation profile. Identify every climb over 5 minutes. Note the gradient, the length, and — critically — where it falls in the event. A 20-minute climb at kilometre 30 is a different challenge from the same climb at kilometre 110. Assign target powers to each one based on where your glycogen and fatigue state will be when you reach it.
The wind. Check the forecast and cross-reference it with the route direction. A headwind on exposed sections in the final third changes everything. If you know the wind is against you for the last 30 kilometres, budget lower power for the first half and save everything for the grind into the wind where watts matter most.
Feed station locations. Plot them against the route. Know which one comes before the hardest section so you can fuel specifically for it. Know which one you can afford to skip if the queue is long.
The final 20 kilometres. Study this section in detail. Is it flat? Climbing? Descending? Into the wind? The specific demands of the closing kilometres should dictate how aggressively you ride the middle section. If the finale is a 10-kilometre climb, you need to arrive at its base with glycogen in reserve. If it is a flat run-in with a tailwind, you can push harder in the final approach.
This is not obsessive. This is preparation. The difference between a reactive rider and a controlled rider is that the reactive rider makes decisions based on how they feel right now, and the controlled rider makes decisions based on what they know is coming.
Mental Approach: Controlled Effort vs Reactive Riding
Pacing is a physical discipline but the failures are almost always mental. The body can hold 72 per cent of FTP for five hours. The brain cannot tolerate riding at 72 per cent when everyone around it is riding at 82 per cent. So the brain overrules the plan, and four hours later the body presents the invoice.
There are three mental frameworks that make execution possible.
Segment the event. Do not think about the total distance. Break the gran fondo into four or five sections based on the route profile. Each section has its own target power, its own character, and its own objective. The objective for the first section is always the same: arrive at the second section having spent less than you budgeted.
Race the final third. Tell yourself before the start that the event does not begin until the 60 per cent mark. Everything before that is a warmup with scenery. The real ride — the part that determines your time and your experience — happens when everyone else is fading. This reframes the first-half restraint as investment rather than sacrifice.
Measure against your plan, not against other riders. You have a power target. You have a heart rate ceiling. You have a pacing strategy. The riders around you have their own plans, or more likely no plan at all. Their pace is irrelevant to your performance. The only comparison that matters is your actual numbers against your planned numbers.
This is not easy. I will not pretend it is. Watching a group ride away from you in the first hour while you hold your target watts requires a kind of confidence that only comes from experience. The first time you do it, you will doubt the plan every 10 minutes. The second time, you will doubt it every 30 minutes. By the third time, you will trust it completely — because you will have watched those same riders come back to you in the final hour, every single time.
Putting It All Together
A gran fondo pacing plan is not complicated. It is a set of numbers, a set of decisions made in advance, and the discipline to execute both when your legs and your ego are telling you otherwise.
Know your FTP. Set your IF target. Build a power budget for each section of the course. Negative split the first and second halves. Ride your own pace on climbs. Draft intelligently on flats. Execute feed stations in 90 seconds. Plan for the final 20 per cent before you reach it.
The riders who do this consistently finish 15 to 25 minutes faster at the same events with the same fitness. Not because they found free watts. Because they stopped wasting the watts they already had.
The good news? This is entirely fixable. You do not need a new bike, a new coach, or a new training plan. You need a piece of tape on your stem with three numbers — your flat target, your climbing target, and your heart rate ceiling — and the self-control to obey them when the first group rolls past at 10 watts above your plan.
If you want to talk pacing strategy, power targets, and race execution with riders who have been through this process, the Roadman Cycling community on Skool is where those conversations happen daily. Real power files, real race reports, real feedback from riders who have stopped guessing and started planning.
The next gran fondo on your calendar does not require more fitness. It requires better arithmetic.