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Coaching17 min read

TIME TRIAL PACING STRATEGY: HOW TO RIDE YOUR FASTEST AGAINST THE CLOCK

By anthony-walsh

WHO THIS IS FOR

IS THIS YOU?

  • Time triallists who keep starting too hard and fading in the second half despite having the fitness to go faster
  • Riders preparing for a 10, 25, or 40km TT who want a concrete power-based pacing plan
  • Anyone racing out-and-back or hilly courses who does not adjust effort for wind or gradient
  • Cyclists who own a power meter but have never used it as a pacing tool on race day

THE ROADMAN VIEW

The Roadman View

  • I have watched enough TT data on the podcast to know that the fastest riders are not the ones pushing the biggest watts. They are the ones who distribute effort so precisely there is nothing left at the line. Pacing is a skill, and I think it is more trainable than raw power.
  • The first sixty seconds is where most amateurs lose the race, and I have been guilty of it myself. Adrenaline pushes you fifteen to twenty per cent above target and the oxygen debt from that opening minute follows you all the way home. Start deliberately restrained — it will feel wrong, but it works.
  • When I had Tim Kerrison on the podcast, the way he talked about power data as a pacing tool really stuck with me. A power meter is worth more than an aero helmet for TTs — heart rate lags, perceived exertion lies under race-day adrenaline, but your power number tells you exactly where you are.

The time trial is the most honest discipline in cycling. No bunch to hide in. No wheel to follow. No tactical excuse when the result comes in two minutes slower than you wanted. It is you, the road, and the clock, and the clock does not care about your excuses.

That honesty is precisely what makes it so addictive and so frustrating. Because in a time trial, the margin between a personal best and a mediocre ride is almost never fitness. It is pacing. The rider who distributes their effort with precision will beat the rider who starts like a scalded cat and limps home with nothing left in the last five kilometres. Every single time.

Here's the thing most riders get wrong: they treat time trialling as a test of how hard they can go. It is not. It is a test of how evenly they can go. And that distinction, once you understand it properly, is worth minutes on the finish clock.

Why pacing matters more than raw power

Let me put a number on this. Take two riders. Rider A has an FTP of 310 watts. Rider B has an FTP of 290 watts. On paper, Rider A should win a 25-mile TT comfortably. But Rider A goes out 25 watts above target, holds it for eight minutes, then fades to 275 watts for the remainder. Rider B holds 295 watts from start to finish.

Rider B wins. And it is not even close.

The physics behind this are straightforward but worth understanding. Aerodynamic drag increases with the cube of speed. That means slowing down costs you disproportionately more time than speeding up gains you. A rider who averages 40kph by riding 45kph for the first half and 35kph for the second half is slower than a rider who holds 40kph throughout, even though the average speed is identical on paper. The maths punishes variation.

Research from sports science labs across Europe and Australia — work by Chris Abbiss, Dieter Atkinson, and others — consistently shows that amateurs lose 2-5 per cent of their potential performance through poor pacing alone. On a 25-mile TT, that is one to three minutes. Not through lack of fitness. Through lack of discipline.

The first-minute trap

Here is where most amateurs lose their time trial, and it happens before they have even settled into their rhythm.

You roll off the start ramp. The adrenaline is surging. Your legs feel extraordinary. The first 200 metres feel almost effortless. You glance at your power meter and it reads 340 watts — 40 above your target — and you think, "I'm having a great day, I'll ride this feeling."

You are not having a great day. You are writing a cheque your body cannot cash.

What is happening physiologically is this: adrenaline has raised your heart rate, sharpened your neuromuscular recruitment, and temporarily suppressed your perception of effort. Everything feels 15-20 per cent easier than it actually is. Your power is 15-20 per cent above target, but your brain is telling you this is sustainable. It is lying.

Within 60-90 seconds, the oxygen debt from that opening burst starts to accumulate. Your body has gone anaerobic at a rate it cannot sustain, and it has generated a lactate load that will take the next 10-15 minutes to clear. But you cannot afford 10-15 minutes of recovery in a time trial. So what happens is a slow, grinding fade — watts dropping, heart rate pinned at maximum, the entire second half of the race ridden in a state of damage limitation.

The fix is simple and uncomfortable: your first two minutes should feel like you are holding back. If you start a time trial feeling like you are restraining yourself, you are doing it right. If you start feeling like you are flying, you are already in trouble.

Dan Bigham — the man who broke the Hour Record and built the Ineos Grenadiers' aero programme — has spoken about this extensively. His approach to the Hour Record was metronomic. The first lap was not faster than the last. The variation across 55 minutes of riding was measured in fractions of a watt. That is not natural talent for pacing. That is deliberate practice.

Even pacing on flat courses

For a flat, windless time trial — and those do exist, particularly on dual carriageway courses in the UK and pancake-flat roads across the Netherlands — even pacing is the gold standard. The research is unambiguous on this point.

Even pacing means holding a consistent power output from start to finish. Not a consistent heart rate. Not a consistent perceived exertion. A consistent power output. The distinction matters because heart rate drifts upward as you fatigue (cardiac drift), and perceived exertion increases as the effort accumulates. If you pace by feel or heart rate, you will slow down without realising it.

Here is how to execute even pacing in practice:

Minutes 1-2: Hold 95 per cent of your target power. This is the restraint phase. It will feel too easy. That is correct.

Minutes 2 to the final 2 minutes: Hold your target power. Do not chase speed. Do not respond to wind gusts. Do not accelerate when you feel good. Trust the number.

Final 2 minutes: If you have paced correctly, you will have something left. Not a lot — you should be deep in the pain — but enough to increase power by 3-5 per cent. This is where the negative split happens, and it is where good pacing pays off.

The key discipline is ignoring speed. On a flat course, wind will affect your speed constantly, but your job is to hold power, not speed. If a headwind drops your speed from 42kph to 38kph, that is fine. Hold the watts. The wind will sort itself out over the full distance.

Variable pacing on hilly courses

Here is where it gets interesting, because the rules change when the road tilts.

On a hilly time trial course, even power is no longer optimal. The correct strategy shifts to even speed — or as close to it as the terrain allows. The reason goes back to that cubic relationship between drag and speed. Time is lost disproportionately when you slow down, and time is gained disproportionately when you speed up from a slow baseline.

What that means in practice: push harder on the climbs and ease off on the descents.

The numbers that work for most amateurs are 5-10 per cent above target power on climbs and 5-10 per cent below target power on descents. On a long descent where you would be freewheeling above 50kph regardless of what power you push, there is almost no point pedalling hard — the aero drag at that speed means extra watts produce almost no extra speed. Save those watts for the next climb.

Filippo Ganna's time trial at the 2020 World Championships is the textbook example of this. Watch the data from that ride and you will see significant power variation — harder on the rises, softer in the valleys — but remarkably consistent speed throughout. The overall impression is of a rider who looks the same at every point on the course, and that consistency is precisely what makes him fast.

For a hilly TT, course reconnaissance becomes essential. You need to know where the climbs are, how long they last, and how steep they get. You need to know what gear you will be in at the steepest point. You need a plan for each section before you start, because making decisions mid-effort — when your brain is oxygen-deprived and your legs are screaming — produces bad decisions.

Out-and-back courses and wind management

Out-and-back courses are the most common format in club time trialling, and they present a specific pacing problem that most riders get wrong.

The instinct is to ride the same power in both directions. This is a mistake. If there is any wind at all — and there almost always is — you need to ride harder into the headwind and easier with the tailwind.

The maths: push 5-8 per cent above your average target power into the headwind, and 5-8 per cent below with the tailwind. The time saved fighting the wind at higher power is greater than the time lost easing off when the wind is behind you, because of that cubic drag relationship again. You spend more time in the headwind section (because you are going slower), so each additional watt has more time to work. In the tailwind section, you are already going fast, so additional watts produce diminishing returns.

Here is an example. Your target average is 280 watts. Into the headwind, ride at 295-300 watts. With the tailwind, ride at 260-265 watts. Your average will come out close to 280, but your time will be faster than if you had held 280 in both directions.

The trap to avoid: riding too hard into the headwind because it feels slow. The psychological challenge of riding at 32kph into a headwind — knowing you can do 42kph on a calm day — makes riders push to 15-20 per cent above target, which tips them into the same oxygen debt problem as the first-minute trap. The 5-8 per cent guideline exists because it is the range where the pacing benefit is significant without the physiological cost becoming unsustainable.

Power targets by TT distance

Knowing your FTP is the foundation of every pacing plan. Without it, you are guessing. Use our FTP Zone Calculator to establish your target ranges before race day.

10-mile TT (20-25 minutes): Target 105-110 per cent of FTP. This is above your one-hour power, which is sustainable because the effort is short enough that you can run a slight deficit without blowing up. For a 250W FTP rider, that is 263-275 watts.

25-mile TT (50-65 minutes): Target 100-105 per cent of FTP. This is right at or just above your hour power. Pacing discipline matters enormously here because 50-65 minutes is long enough for early mistakes to compound but short enough that you cannot recover from them.

40km TT (55-70 minutes): Target 95-100 per cent of FTP. The extra distance means you need to ride slightly below your absolute ceiling. The fastest 40km TTs are ridden at a power that feels almost frustratingly moderate in the first 20 minutes.

These ranges assume you have a reasonably accurate FTP. If your FTP is based on a proper test protocol rather than a guess, the targets will be reliable. If you are guessing, start at the lower end of each range.

Power meter vs heart rate vs perceived exertion

Let me be clear about this: a power meter is the single most valuable piece of equipment for time trialling. More valuable than aero wheels. More valuable than a skinsuit. More valuable than a TT bike.

Here is why. Heart rate has a lag of 30-60 seconds. In a 20-minute TT, that lag means you are always pacing based on where you were, not where you are. Heart rate is also elevated by adrenaline, heat, caffeine, and nerves — all of which are present on race day. A heart rate of 170bpm on the turbo trainer at home and 170bpm on the start ramp of a national championship represent completely different power outputs.

Perceived exertion is even less reliable. Race-day adrenaline suppresses your perception of effort by 15-20 per cent, as we discussed. The effort that feels like a 7 out of 10 on the start ramp is actually a 9 out of 10 in physiological terms. By the time your perceived exertion catches up with reality, the damage is done.

Power is objective, instantaneous, and unaffected by adrenaline, weather, or how much coffee you had. Set a number. Hold the number. That is the entire pacing strategy.

If you do not have a power meter, heart rate is better than nothing, but you need to account for the lag. Set your heart rate target 3-5 beats below what you would expect, and accept that the first five minutes of data are unreliable. Perceived exertion should be your last resort, with one rule: whatever feels sustainable in the first three minutes, back off by 10 per cent.

Warming up for a time trial

A time trial is a maximal effort from the gun. If you start cold, you spend the first 5-8 minutes bringing your cardiovascular system up to operating temperature, and those are minutes you have already lost.

The 20-minute warm-up protocol:

  1. 10 minutes easy spinning — get the blood flowing, get warm, get loose
  2. 3 minutes at tempo — start raising the heart rate and priming the aerobic system
  3. 2 x 1-minute efforts at target TT power with 1 minute easy spinning between — these "openers" prime the neuromuscular system and raise your heart rate to near-race levels
  4. 4 minutes easy spinning — allow heart rate to drop back while maintaining the elevated body temperature
  5. Start within 5 minutes of finishing the warm-up

The openers are the most important part. Those two one-minute efforts at race intensity tell your body what is coming. When you roll off the start ramp, your cardiovascular system is already primed for the effort, and you avoid the sluggish first few minutes that cost cold-starting riders 15-30 seconds.

If you are at an event with a fixed start time, count backwards from your start time to determine when to begin warming up. Build in a 2-3 minute buffer for getting to the start line, checking your bike, and getting clipped in.

The mental side of time trialling

The time trial is a pain management exercise. There is no way around that. From about one-third of the way in, you will be uncomfortable. From two-thirds, you will be in genuine distress. The question is not whether it hurts. The question is what you do when it hurts.

Three mental tools that hold up under TT effort:

Segmenting. Break the effort into blocks. A 25-mile TT is not 25 miles. It is five 5-mile blocks. Focus on the current block. When it is done, reset and focus on the next one. The brain can handle "five more minutes at this pace." It cannot handle "twenty more minutes at this pace."

Process focus. Pick one thing to concentrate on. Cadence, breathing, keeping your shoulders relaxed, maintaining your aero position. When the pain increases, narrow your focus to that one thing. The more specific your attention, the less bandwidth the pain has.

The 90-second rule. When a bad patch hits — and it will, usually around the halfway mark — give yourself 90 seconds. Do not make any pacing decisions during those 90 seconds. Do not back off. Do not change your plan. Just ride through it. Bad patches pass. They always pass. The riders who react to them by dropping power lose time they never get back.

The worst thing you can do mentally is look at the distance remaining. Looking at speed during a headwind section is equally destructive. Cover the distance field on your head unit if you need to. Show only power, cadence, and elapsed time.

Common mistakes that cost time

Starting too hard. We have covered this, but it bears repeating because it is the most common mistake in amateur time trialling by a significant margin.

Not reconnoitring the course. If you have not ridden the course before the event, you are leaving time on the table. You need to know where the roundabouts are, where the road surface changes, where the wind funnels between hedgerows, and where the gradient kicks up. Ride the course at least once at easy pace before race day.

Wrong gearing. If you are on a standard 53/39 chainset with an 11-28 cassette, you probably have too many gears you will never use and not enough in the range you need. For a flat TT, a 54 or 56 chainring with a close-ratio cassette gives you finer control over cadence. For a hilly TT, make sure you have a gear that lets you maintain 80+ rpm on the steepest section without going above target power.

Neglecting nutrition for short TTs. A 10-mile TT does not require in-ride nutrition. But it absolutely requires pre-race fuelling. Arriving at the start with depleted glycogen stores — because you skipped lunch or went for a long ride the day before without refuelling — will cost you 3-5 per cent of your power output. Eat a carbohydrate-rich meal 2-3 hours before your start time and take a caffeine gel 20 minutes before.

Sacrificing power for aero position. Your aero position only matters if you can hold your power in it. A position that drops your output by 20 watts to save 10 watts of aerodynamic drag is slower, full stop. Most amateurs would be faster sitting up slightly from an extreme aero tuck and holding their numbers. Get a proper bike fit for your TT position, and test it under load — not just on the turbo in the garage, but on the road at race intensity.

Ignoring the warm-up. Rolling to the start line cold and expecting your body to deliver maximal power from the gun is wishful thinking. The warm-up is not optional.

Race-day checklist

The night before:

  • Charge your head unit and power meter
  • Check tyre pressure (or set a reminder for race morning)
  • Lay out your kit: skinsuit, shoes, helmet, gloves, glasses, number
  • Check the start sheet for your time and any course notes
  • Eat a carbohydrate-rich dinner — nothing exotic, nothing new

Race morning:

  • Eat 2-3 hours before your start — toast, porridge, rice, banana, whatever you know works
  • Arrive at the course with at least 45 minutes to spare
  • Sign on, collect your number, recce the start and finish areas
  • 30 minutes before start: begin warm-up on the turbo or road
  • 20 minutes before: caffeine gel if you use it
  • 10 minutes before: final opener effort, then easy spinning
  • 5 minutes before: get to the start area, check your bike, get clipped in
  • On the start ramp: set your head unit to the race screen, take three deep breaths, and remind yourself of one thing — hold back for the first two minutes

After the finish:

  • Spin easy for 10-15 minutes
  • Download the data and review your pacing — compare actual power to target power by section
  • Note what worked and what did not for next time

Putting it all together

Time trial pacing is not complicated. It is difficult, which is a different thing entirely. The principles are simple: start conservatively, hold a consistent power output, adjust for terrain and wind, and do not panic when it hurts. The difficulty is executing those principles when adrenaline is screaming at you to go harder, when the rider who started a minute behind you is closing the gap, and when every fibre of your being wants the effort to be over.

But here is the good news. Pacing is a skill, not a talent. It can be practised, refined, and mastered through repetition. Every threshold session on the turbo, every tempo effort on the road, every club 10 is an opportunity to practise holding a number and resisting the urge to deviate from the plan.

The riders who consistently produce their best times on race day are not the ones with the highest FTP. They are the ones who have practised pacing so many times that it has become automatic — the restraint in the first two minutes, the discipline in the middle, the controlled release at the end. That precision is available to every rider with a power meter and the willingness to trust the process.

If you want to work on your pacing with a group of riders who take this seriously, the Roadman community on Skool is where we break down sessions, share race data, and hold each other accountable. Because the fastest way to get faster against the clock is to stop guessing and start measuring.

FAQ

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What power should I hold in a 10-mile time trial?
For a 10-mile TT lasting roughly 20-25 minutes, aim for 105-110 per cent of your FTP. If your FTP is 250 watts, your target range is 263-275 watts. Start at the lower end of that range for the first two minutes, settle into target by minute three, and if you have anything left in the final two minutes, increase gradually rather than sprinting.
Should I ride harder into a headwind?
Yes. Push 5-8 per cent above your average target power into the headwind and ease off by the same amount with the tailwind. The physics of wind resistance mean you gain more time pushing harder into the wind than you lose by easing off with it. This is one of the simplest and most effective pacing adjustments in time trialling.
How do I pace a hilly time trial?
Switch from targeting even power to targeting even speed. Increase power by 5-10 per cent on the climbs and reduce by a similar amount on the descents. The goal is to minimise speed variation across the course, because time is lost disproportionately when you slow down compared to when you speed up.
Is it better to start a time trial conservatively or aggressively?
Conservatively. Research consistently shows that a negative or even split — where the second half is equal to or faster than the first — produces faster overall times than a fast start. The adrenaline of the start ramp makes every effort feel easier than it is, so your first two minutes should feel deliberately restrained.
Do I need a power meter for time trialling?
You do not need one, but it is the single most impactful piece of equipment for TT performance. Heart rate lags too much to be useful for pacing in efforts under 60 minutes, and perceived exertion is distorted by race-day adrenaline. A power meter gives you a real-time pacing reference that eliminates guesswork.

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AW

ANTHONY WALSH

Host of the Roadman Cycling Podcast

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